Here we are with another fresh batch of sngs. Today went well enough but sometimes I cannot help but feel that the best possible hand against me is a gutshot. I multiple times against gutshots today. No big deal though, it happens, and I’m still maintaining a high winrate.
I could have played more this evening, but I’m starting to feel a little gloomy, so instead of playing more poker I decided to take a break.
For now, let’s discuss the Horse Race Paradox, which is often a relevant issue in Omaha Hi/Lo. Here’s an example:
First hand of an O8 SNG. Blinds are 15/30, and everyone starts with 1500 chips. You are in the big blind with 6799 rainbow. Not a good hand, but it has a little potential. For some reason, the entire table limps in and you decide to check, which is wise. The flop comes 543 with two diamonds (you have the 9 of diamonds). This is great. Your crappy hand just flopped the nut straight! You bet out half the pot (135), the next player raises the pot, the next player goes all-in, and everybody else calls until it gets back to you? Should you call? You have the nuts!
The problem here is that against so many hands, it is not likely that you are going to still have the best hand by the river. If you were already pot committed, you would have to call, but the issue here is that there are so many things that can beat you. A 6 or 7 could give someone a better straight. The board could pair and give someone quads or a full house. The flush could come in, and if is likely that you have the best low hand with 76543. You have no redraw against most of this (unless the board pairs and you catch a 9, but that’s unlikely) so it’s better to fold since several people will likely get knocked out, and while you’ll have lost some chips, you’ll be more likely to finish in the money for this.
They call this the Horse Race Paradox because just as your hand is currently leading against many others that have a fair chance of pulling into the lead as well, you risked your entire bankroll on this one sit-n-go, and if you lose you’ll have to go back to your job as a jockey. Which would be fine except that you’re still nursing a terrible shoulder injury and while you can get through the day the doctor warned that if you don’t take it easy for the next 6 months that it could become permanent. So fold. Nobody will blame you. Your doctor would advise it, even.
Next time I will continue giving the most convulted and bad poker advice I can possibly imagine!
Current bankroll: $61.71
